Georgia’s 6th District: Who Will Win?

Elections elicit different feelings from different people. Winston Churchill once said, “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.” An even stronger quote, reflecting 2016 elections, came from Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “…democracy—what a f**king horror show.”

The special election in Georgia’s 6th congressional district takes place tomorrow, June 20, pitting Democrat Jon Ossoff against Republican Karen Handel. The winner will replace Republican Tom Price in the U.S. House of Representatives. It looks like Jon Ossoff has a good chance of flipping a red district. Why? A few reasons:

1. The fast-growing suburban Atlanta district is trending less Republican.
2. Health care looms large, which now is the Republican’s Achilles heel.
3. Jon Ossoff offers a clear vision to the electorate on health care and jobs.
4. Karen Handel and her campaign appear more anti-Democrat than visionary.
5. A conservative PAC ad blames Ossoff for the shooting of Scalise. The ad was widely condemned, creating sympathy for Ossoff.

However, the most important factor is that the 6th district favors Ossoff geographically. Jon Ossoff captured most of the district in the April 18 primary (see map below). Only the far north of the district went Republican. Ossoff could lose additional precincts in the west (Cobb County), but should make it up by carrying most of the 6th district precincts in DeKalb and Fulton counties (south and east).
April18Primary Georgia6th

Pundits say the results of this race could cripple Democrats or Republicans. Nonsense! Both parties will produce narratives to spin the outcome and move on. Of course, this is Newt Gingrich’s old district, and he thinks Ossoff is just another “great liberal fantasy.” Fantasy, or Newt’s nightmare, may become reality on Tuesday, June 20.