Virginia State Senate Battlegrounds for the November 5, 2019 Election


Geographic distribution of vulnerable Senate seats.
Republicans look vulnerable in 7 of their 21 Virginia Senate seats, and Democrats 1 or 2 for control.
The Virginia Senate Before the Election

Republicans currently control the 40-member Virginia Senate with just 20 seats versus 19 for Democrats. Republican Senator Frank Wagner resigned his seat (Senate District 7) to create 1 vacancy in the Senate chamber.

If Democrats pick up 1 seat, it will be 20-20, with Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax (Democrat) casting any tie-breaker. However, Democrats hope to get 21 or more seats—to be a majority in the Virginia Senate.

The Issues

State legislatures are the fundamental base of our representative democracy, deciding on important issues like schools, criminal justice, and health care. Unfortunately, the campaigns will trivialize important issues into sound bites, such as  “socialism,””infanticide,” “far left,” “gun safety,” “anti-gun” and “racists.” Also, the so-called Trump effect (positive and negative) for Republicans will be huge and will be evident in voter turnout and election results.

Some Humble Forecasts for Tuesday, November 5

Based on some quick analysis, some of which is revealed on the map, Democrats should take control of the Virginia Senate, winning at least 2 seats from Republicans and perhaps as many as 4 or 5. Based on current voting trends, Democratic candidates should flip Senate districts 7 and 13. Democrats have a good chance of flipping Senate districts 8, 10, and 12.

Read the map and see if you agree! See enlarged sections below.












An interesting article on the District 11 race and the “Battle of the Amandas” reveals what could be a close race after incumbent Sen. Amanda Chase’s many controversies—including being kicked out of the local Chesterfield County Republican Party.



Author: David Miller

Learned about the wonders of geography while working at National Geographic for some 25 years. Started teaching one class a semester at NOVA in the 1990s but became a dedicated instructor in 2010.

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