Why Rob Bloxom Won Virginia’s 100th District

As predicted in my blog of February 22, Republican candidate Rob Bloxom won the special election for the 100th District  in the Virginia House of Delegates. But why?

Speaker of the House of Delegates, William Howell, made the following statement as the election results revealed a Republican victory on February 25:

 Tonight, citizens of Virginia spoke loud and clear. They overwhelmingly elected Rob Bloxom as Delegate in Virginia’s 100th District and adamantly rejected ObamaCare’s Medicaid expansion in Virginia.

Wait. What? Speaker Howell’s assessment ignores recent electoral trends. In November 2013, Democrats in favor of the Affordable Care Act (derisively referred to as ObamaCare by Republicans) swept statewide offices—and in 2014 won three special elections to Virginia’s General Assembly.

My conclusion differs from the one purported by Speaker Howell. Rob Bloxom’s electoral victory over Democrat Willie Randall is based primarily on geography:

1. Rob Bloxom resides in Accomack County, the most populous county in District 100. He grew up on the Eastern Shore, and his father represented the area as a delegate from 1978 to 2003. Bloxom won Accomack County with 4,465 votes versus 2,246 for Randall.

2. Willie Randall lives in Northampton County, the least populous county in District 100. He came to the Eastern Shore in 1997, a relative newcomer to most folks in the area. Randall lost his home county in the election, receiving 1,234 votes to Bloxom’s 1,527.

3. Norfolk city’s precincts gave a narrow win to Randall with 893 votes to Bloxom’s 818. Voter turnout was abysmally low (only about 9%), probably because neither candidate was from Norfolk. In contrast, voter turnout was about 30% on the Eastern Shore.

Election results on February 25, 2014 are mostly red (Republican).
Election results by precinct on February 25  are mostly red (Republican). Source: VPAP.

As the map above shows, Republican Rob Bloxom gained votes from most of District 100 (outlined in green). His win can be attributed to his civic stature on the Eastern Shore, his father’s political legacy, and his constant refrain that he “is not a politician or a lawyer.” I heard Bloxom talk about business, government regulation, government ethics, education, and transportation. I really did not hear much from Bloxom or Randall on the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare).

In the end, it is likely that the good people of District 100 voted for someone who is like them and can best represent them. To say the people voted against ObamaCare is a bit of a reach. It also ignores the cultural geography of the Eastern Shore.

 

 

Special Election for the 33rd State Senate Seat, January 21, 2014

The Washington Post blared on a January 20 header: “Outcome Could Decide Senate Control.” Of course, the Post is referring to the three-way race for the 33rd district between Democrat Jennifer Wexton, Republican John Whitbeck, and Independent candidate, and former Republican, Joe May.

This is shaping up to be a LARGE Democratic win. Why you may ask???

  • The 33rd district leans Democratic, as described in my 1 January blog.
  • Whitbeck and May will likely split the Republican vote.
  • As of 10 January, Wexton has raised $835,000 versus $259,000 for Whitbeck and $168,000 for May (see VPAP).
  • Perhaps the most telling sign of all is the overall low level of contributions from Republican Party groups to Whitbeck (see below).
  • The Virginia Senate Republican Caucus seems to lack faith in Whitbeck, who has received about $72,000. This pales in comparison to $578,000 given to Republican Wayne Coleman in his race for the 6th Senate district earlier this month.

graph

 

There is a wildcard factor—the forecast calls for snow on Election Day! Snow is expected to start at 9 am. We will see if this affects the election.

In any case, control of the Virginia State Senate does hang in the balance. Democrats must win the election for the 33rd district tomorrow, as well as the election recount for the 6th district.

locatorStateSenate Elections

Virginia’s Ultra Close 6th Senate District Election: Blame Norfolk & Money

The January 7, 2014 special election for the 6th Virginia Senate District was close, I mean really close, the margin of victory was only 10 votes as of January 10. Currently, Delegate Lynwood Lewis (Democrat) leads with 10,200 votes versus 10,190 votes for Republican candidate Wayne Coleman.

In my January 1 blog, I thought Lewis would win easily because he represents the 100th district in the House of Delegates, which covers much of the area in the Virginia Senate’s 6th district, a Democratic-leaning district (see maps below).

Map comparing Virginia's 6th Senate District to the 100th House of Delegates District
Map comparing Virginia’s 6th Senate District to the 100th House of Delegates District

 Election results by 6th district regions. Geopolitically, Virginia is known as a purple state, with red (Republican) regions and blue (Democratic) regions. The same is true for the 6th district. The counties of Mathews and Accomack and the city of Virginia Beach tend to be red. The city of Norfolk and the Northampton County trend blue. Election results (below) were predictable in that Mathews, Accomack, and Virginia Beach went mostly red. Northampton and Norfolk went blue, but Norfolk did not provide as many Democratic votes as expected.

map2

 Why was Norfolk a surprise in this election? The majority of voters in the 6th district (58%) come from Norfolk, a city largely favorable to Democrats. Well, Lewis got more votes in Norfolk than Coleman (4,911 to 4,512), but he should have gotten much more. One problem is that voter turnout was low in Norfolk; as I said, this part of the 6th district should provide 58% of the vote, but Norfolk provided only 46% of the vote in the January 7 special election.

 Why the low voter turnout? Low special election turnout is a consistent problem. Also, the weather was very cold on January 7, going from 47°F the day before to 16°F on Election Day. But the real reason could be that Lewis defeated Norfolk natives Paula Miller and Andria McClellan in the Democratic primary. Miller represented Norfolk in the House of Delegates from 2005-2012. Andria McClellan was Treasurer for Ralph Northam’s winning 2013 campaign for Virginia Lt. Governor. In the November 16 primary, both Miller and McClellan received more votes than Lewis in Norfolk—but Lewis gained more votes in the Eastern Shore precincts and won the primary. I would guess that some Democrats did not vote because of loyalty to Miller or McClellan. Finally, Wayne Coleman operates his business in Norfolk, which undoubtedly garnered him votes in certain precincts.

Was campaign money important? It is not just that Wayne Coleman had more money—he had way more money! According to VPAP, Coleman raised about $599,000 to $396,000 for Lewis. Almost $400,000 of Coleman’s contributions came from Republican national and state committees, $290,000 from the Republican Party’s Virginia Senate Caucus, including $80,000 on December 24—quite a Christmas present! By comparison, the Democratic Party’s Virginia Senate Caucus gave a comparatively underwhelming $164,000 to Lewis.

Electoral geography is often a complex interaction of different factors. Deciding factors in this election could be low voter turnout in Norfolk and large differences in campaign funds. As of this writing, the State Board of Elections certifies Democratic candidate Lynwood Lewis as the winner, but Republican candidate Wayne Coleman is requesting a recount. This election is pivotal in determining red or blue control of the Virginia Senate.