October 8 is already here, where does the time go! Time to update the map. The electoral geography shown on the map (below) is built on the same premises as my last prediction on August 29—large turnout, disciplined Clinton campaign, chaotic Trump campaign, media surprises, and close polls. Polls will continue to roller coaster, based on the latest actual or perceived scandals rocking the Clinton or Trump campaigns.
This map does not feature any swing states, and it is largely based on recent voting trends—and not so much on erratic and subjective polls. A key factor is an anticipated voter surge that we have not seen since 2008.
Based on this map, Hillary Clinton should win with 369 electoral votes, versus some 169 for Donald Trump. If this is correct, then Clinton will get almost 100 more electoral votes than the 270 needed to become President and 200 more electoral votes than Trump.
On August 29, I explained why Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional district would go for Clinton. However, it looks increasingly likely that Missouri and Indiana could go blue also.
MISSOURI. This state could possibly go to Clinton. Why?
- It has a history of electing Democrats statewide (see graph below).
- Obama almost won the state in 2008, without much money or effort.
- Republican Roy Blunt was first elected to the Senate in 2010 in a low turnout election. In 2016, Blunt is tied with Democrat Jason Kander.
- In 2012, Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill won with high voter turnout.
- Democrat Chris Koster is leading in the governor’s race.
- Missourians witness the fiscal failure of Kansas as a conservative GOP utopia.
- Clinton could win with high voter turnout and Trump campaign failures.
INDIANA. This state could also go blue. Why?
- Obama won here in 2008 (graph below) due to frequent visits and GOP neglect.
- Obama lost Indiana in 2012, but Democrat Joe Donnelly earned a Senate victory.
- Trump’s running mate, Indiana Governor Mike Pence, polls as unpopular in Indiana.
- The race to succeed Pence is close, which should increase voter turnout.
- Currently, Democrat Evan Bayh is leading in the Senate race.
- Polls indicate a close contest between Clinton and Trump in the state.
Other purported swing states, like Arizona and Georgia, should stay in the Republican column, even with their large minority populations. Democrats have not won statewide in these states in recent years. It is unlikely that the Clinton campaign could convert solid red states, even if the Trump campaign collapses, because of intense conservative propaganda concerning her (and Bill Clinton’s) actual or perceived sins. In essence, Republican sinners are redeemable, whereas Democrats are not.
Of course, a large win for Clinton in November will not end the controversy, and partisan attacks will continue as Republicans look to 2018 and 2020, following the pattern after Obama’s election in 2008. Speaking of 2018, Virginia may have a large part to play in Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate. A Clinton-Kaine win in November will require Virginia Governor McAuiliffe to appoint a successor to Senator Tim Kaine. The odds on favorite seems to be Representative Bobby Scott.